Forecasting

There are only three basic forecasting methods: magic, hope, and mathematics.  All three generate similar forecasts, which are basically wrong.  Some are more wrong than others, but only mathematically based forecasts are suited to computerization.  That doesn’t make them any better than forecasts produced in other ways, only more defensible.

Thanks to my friend Kyle Larson for sending this in response to yesterdays, Tomfoolery.  He adds, “I have had this quote posted in ‘Agile labs’ several times.”

I had a boss once (Mark Herron, Hotel Controller) who used to say, “If it’s on greenbar, it’s gospel.”  So you know that by the reference to greenbar it’s old (1984); but it certainly reinforces the fallacy of computerized forecasting.